Election Predictions.

Okay.  So, for all you Donald Trump supporters that like to tell me things like “I’ve lost my damn mind”; “I’m full of shit”;  “Obamacare is a joke” or any other one liner the Trump supporters have thrown at me recently, I’m going to explain to you how this works. We’re about to play a game called the first one to 270 wins. Soooo,  I’m going to make my predictions like I normally do every election and I don’t think there’s anyone left to delete me after 4 years ago (where 40 people unfriended me on election night who had held on for the campaign because they thought they were going to get to tell me what’s up — they were wrong), but let me go ahead and put my sassy bit of political punditry out there for you and we’ll see if I’m right. 

Voter turnout in Florida was higher during early voting than it was for the entire 2000 election. Now,  what that means is that that’s good news for Hillary Clinton. The data shows us consistently that when voter turnout is high,  Democrats win across the board. That’s why voter suppression legislation is a thing. Voter ID laws have nothing to do with voter fraud — it doesn’t really exist — it’s about keeping turnout down. Because when turnout is low at the polls, Republicans win.

It’s why Republican-controlled states like Texas and Tennessee have passed legislation that allows voters to use a handgun carry permit ID to vote, but not a college ID. College students overwhelmingly vote Democrat and they only want a certain kind of voter casting ballots — and college students aren’t it.

It’s also why States like North Carolina and Virginia that went for Barack Obama in 2008 — states that have not been carried by a Democrat in ages — enacted some of the strictest voter ID laws in the country after the 08 election. Because when less people vote, Republicans win.

So if that turn out trend in Florida holds, I’m predicting that Hillary will carry Florida. Now,  Trump will win the usual Republican strongholds:  Alabama, MississippI, Tennessee, Kentucky, Utah, Texas, the Dakotas. Kansas. Oklahoma.  I’m not ready to predict that we’re at the point where a Democrat could take a southern state like Georgia, but if voter turnout is high in Atlanta, Hillary could give him a run for his money.

Ohio worries me because we know as Ohio goes, so goes the nation.  And Rust Belt areas like Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio where factories have closed and voters feel left behind, have been swindled by this “I’ll bring jobs back” bullshit Trump has been peddling, and the hardest hit areas could fall for it out of desperation without realizing that Donald Trump makes everything he sells in sweatshops in various, different nations. The shirt manufacturer Van Heusen, who manufactured a line of shirts for Trump, told the New York Times he never once even mentioned making the shirts in America during the negotiations. It wasn’t even important to him. But the Rust Belt states worry me.

However, Donald Trump needs to not only win the usual Republican states, but he must win all the battleground States. The same is not true for Hillary Clinton. She needs the Democratic safety nets  plus one. I  think Iowa is one blue state that Donald Trump could flip. I think Hillary takes Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina — if turnout in urban areas of North Carolina are high.  I think Kelly Ayotte will be sent packing, but I’m not sure we’ll take back the Senate.

That’s it.

Ok. Let’s do this, y’all.

I haven’t even been nervous all day because I trust the American people, but suddenly — my stomach just got tight.

It’s game time.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s